I find the Eagles’ ongoing offensive coordinator search to be a fascinating study on the assumption of risk and the results of those assumptions both for the Eagles and for their candidates.
My boss at my last job always spoke of “the assumption of risk.” By choosing one course of action, we open ourselves up to the consequences of that decision. By choosing another, we invite different results, both positive and negative. It’s incumbent on the decision-makers to weigh those courses of action and make the best decision possible, accepting the negative results when they occur. We’ve done the homework, we’ve made the assessment, we’ve mitigated (as much as we can) the negative results, and now we deal with those consequences. It’s a model everyone uses to some degree both in their workplace and in their personal lives.
The Eagles now find themselves facing the results of their decisions.
The Eagles front office has not been shy about quickly moving on from coaches that compromise their contention windows, even when those coaches are accomplished. Sean Desai, Matt Patricia, Brian Johnson, and now Kevin Patullo, are not examples of accomplished coaches per se. Each had their flaws, but they also presided over teams that won 11+ games in a season. Doug Pederson and Press Taylor, while fired after a 4-win season, had just won the Eagles’ first Super Bowl only three seasons prior. Accomplished, to say the least.
The Eagles’ were not necessarily wrong in firing said coaches. The defense in 2023 was abysmal. Pederson and Taylor’s offenses were stale. We know how bad Patullo’s offense fared just one season after winning a Super Bowl; the realized impact still fresh in our minds. The Eagles have had success in the short-term by making such moves. After firing Pederson and Taylor, the Eagles were in a Super Bowl only two seasons later. They won their second Super Bowl just one season after parting ways with Desai, Patricia and Johnson. But the long-term risk of firing coaches after winning seasons or so quickly after winning Super Bowls was always discouraging future hires with perceived instability of the position. That perception is not wrong, and now it has finally affected their coordinator search.
“What is the standard for success?” “How long will that standard apply?” “Can I assume that the Eagles will still employ me after a single bad season?” “Is the job worth it?” These are all fair questions invited by the Eagles’ aggression in pursuing a championship window at the expense of finding coaches that align with the organization’s vision and priorities, and parting ways with those that do not.
The assumption of risk is not one-sided. For the candidates, the assumption of risk lies in their comfortability with Nick Sirianni’s control of the offense affecting their future head coaching viability. There is already most of a staff in place. Stoutland has survived numerous coaching regimes, and that is not likely to change. No one truly knows how much input Sirianni has in game plans, though it’s safe to say coordinators do not have complete independence. But the offense remains one of the most talented in football. The ceiling is a top-5 player or unit at every position on the field.
There is high risk that results in relief less than one year after being hired, whether it real or only perceived. High reward in a fast track to a head coaching job elsewhere (see Kellen Moore and Shane Steichen). It is no coincidence that Moore was a head coach candidiate for years, did not get the jobs he wanted, then immediately earned one after a single year of being the Eagles’ offensive coordinator. If a candidate wants the payoff of being a head coach somewhere but lacks the resume, the Eagles job provides a quick and clear path to that end.
The Eagles should still be able to hire an offensive coordinator that can take the Eagles’ offense back to a Super Bowl-caliber unit, though it likely will not come in the way fans may have imagined. The front office’s gamble, and the risk involved with that gamble, intersects with the coaching candidacy in a unique way that optimizes the selection for a particular type of coordinator: young innovators with a point to prove.
The Eagles offensive coordinator job should still be attractive to a bunch of candidates. Maybe not the ilk they want: an established, experienced and well-respected play caller like Kevin Stefanski or Mike McDaniel. There is no reason for coaches like that to assume the risk presented to them in Philadelphia. But it should still attract a subset of young, hungry and creative minds that want to fast track themselves to a head coaching gig. They shouldn’t settle for a retread. There are young and ambitious brains out there that would love the opportunity to catapult their name into the next coaching carousel. The Eagles should take their time in finding the perfect one.
Leave a Reply