Author: Joe

Jordan Romano blew yet another save, as the Phillies lost to the Mets 4-3. The loss concludes a series sweep against Mets, who now have a stranglehold on the NL East.

It is difficult to blame Jordan Romano at this point. He is a bad reliever. The fault lands solely at the feet of Manager Rob Thomson.

Thomson’s calling card is trust in his players, even to a fault. His trust in his players is a commendable trait. But it often leads to untimely runs, unfortunate at bats, and an uncanny propensity to turn wins into losses.

Recall that during the 2023 NLCS series against the Diamondbacks, Thomson refused to remove Johan Rojas from the lineup or even pinch-hit for him. Johan Rojas ended the series with a .136 batting average and a .136 on base percentage in 22 at bats. Bryce Harper had 23 at bats.

In the same series, Thomson continued to utilize reliever Craig Kimbrel in high-leverage situations despite his poor performances. He blew two saves and had a 12.00 ERA.

Thomson is clearly trying to get Romano through a rough patch in his career. He is demonstrating to Romano that the team will trust him and have his back no matter what. The unfortunate reality is that while it is only April, a series against the division leaders is not the time to demonstrate trust, especially not in a player that has not earned that trust at any point in his career with the Phillies.

The series against the Miami Marlins was supposed to be a get right series. The Phillies may have won two of the three games, but they seemed to be pyrrhic victories. The Phillies have consistently struggled in the same areas throughout their first 22 games, and this weekend was no different.

The Phillies bullpen collapsed once again during the last two games against the Marlins. On Saturday, much maligned “closer” Jordan Romano allowed six earned runs in a 9th inning collapse, forcing Rob Thomson to send in Jose Alvarado to get the final out. The Phillies had been up 11-4. On Sunday, Orion Kerkering allowed three earned runs in the 8th inning to put the Marlins up 5-4. The Marlins eventually won in the 10th 7-5. The Phillies now lead Major League Baseball with six blown saves this season.

Similarly, the outfield continues to underperform—difficult to do given the low expectations coming into this season. Brandon Marsh is currently recovering from injury, but even when he has been in the lineup, he has struggled. On the season he is batting .095 with only four hits and 16 strikeouts. He boasts a -0.8 WAR, an impressively poor metric given he has only played in 17 games. New addition Max Kepler sits at -0.1 WAR and is slugging only .333, his worst since 2015. He was a rookie. Johan Rojas may be batting .344, but his body of work would suggest that his hot streak is not sustainable. On some days, the Phillies have Kyle Schwarber in left field, a damning indictment of the state of the outfield.

Between the Phillies’ issues in the bullpen and the outfield, they seem more like a team resigned to a fate similar to their quick exit in the divisional series against the Mets in 2024 than a team destined for the World Series. Dave Dombrowski’s calling card is big swings during the season, but he has yet to make such a move since agreeing to lead the Phillies. With the core of this team set to change drastically next year, this season feels like now or never. So when are the reinforcements coming, and where are they coming from?

The Outfield

Internal

In the outfield, the Phillies roster Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler, Johan Rojas, Kyle Schwarber, Cal Stevenson and Edmundo Sosa, whose first start in the outfield resulted in more bad than good. He may be hot at the plate, but his defense was a liability. Internally, the Phillies have a few options, though they are not particularly inspiring, at least not right now.

The most obvious internal solution is Justin Crawford. Crawford ranks third among all Phillies prospects (61 in the MLB top 100 prospects list) and currently plays for the Phillies’ AAA affiliate, the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. Crawford has been good in AAA this season, batting .293. The issue with Crawford since he was drafted though is his lack of power at the plate, and that has not changed. This season with the Iron Pigs, he has no home runs and is slugging only .378. He will work a count, something the Phillies have desperately needed over the last few seasons, but he leaves plenty to be desired in terms of power. As of right now, his defense does not make up for his inability to drive the ball. If the Phillies decide to elevate Crawford, it will be because of his ability to make contact and leg out a single.

Perhaps a less well-known prospect that could provide more consistent pop at the plate for the Phillies is Gabriel Rincones Jr. Rincones made a statement during Spring Training in Clearwater, hitting three home runs. He had an incredible .988 OPS. The issue with Rincones is his plate discipline. During Spring Training, he struck out over 24% of the time and he already has 15 strikeouts through 74 at bats with the Iron Pigs in 2025. Brandon Marsh’s biggest hurdle is his strikeout rate; replacing him with Rincones does not fix that issue.

Trade

If the Phillies choose to pull from outside the organization, one option could be Luis Robert Jr. The Phillies were linked to him all of last season leading up to the trade deadline. His 2025 season has been bad. He is currently batting .145 with a .514 OPS, but he could benefit from a change of scenery in Philadelphia. The Phillies have a stronger lineup than the White Sox. When considering Luis Robert Jr., it is important to remember his All-Star season in 2023. In 2023, he recorded 38 homeruns and batted .264. Surrounded by hitters like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, Luis Robert Jr. would have a good chance at rebounding well. He is a natural in Center Field, consistently adding solid defensive value. Additionally, Baseball Savant’s metrics indicate he is suffering from bad luck. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his expected slugging percentage is below his actual slugging percentage.

Another option could be Tommy Pham. Pham may be difficult to pry away from Pittsburgh despite having a bad season at the plate, as they are a team starved for offense this season. Regardless, Pham has injected some offensive help at every stop during his career, even assisting the Diamondbacks in their World Series run in 2023.

Outside of the two outfielders above, there are rumors that Taylor Ward (Los Angeles Angels) and Cedric Mullins (Baltimore Orioles) could be available. However, both teams are playing well enough that they will likely continue playing for their respective clubs. Mike Trout, every Phillies fan’s dream, will also be staying in Los Angeles. If the Phillies get desperate enough, they could look to add a first baseman and move Bryce Harper back to right field. The question is, where would Nick Castellanos move?

Given the Phillies’ lack of internal solutions, the best course of action is trading for Luis Robert Jr. They have enough depth in the farm system to trade for him, especially with his poor play so far in 2025. The White Sox covet young prospects, and the Phillies have a few that should interest Chicago. If the Phillies can avoid a bidding war with the Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers or some other team with an even deeper farm system, the Phillies can put together a strong offer.

Bullpen

Internal

In the offseason, the Phillies lost relievers Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. To replace two high leverage arms, the Phillies placed a gamble Jordan Romano, a former closer for the Blue Jays who had a down year due to injury. They brought in Joe Ross and Jose Ruiz. That bet has not paid off. Jeff Hoffman has been electric for the Blue Jays, throwing 11.1 innings with 16 strikeouts, recording 5 saves and posting a 1.59 ERA. Carlos Estevez has been similarly impressive for Kansas City, throwing 10 innings with 10 strikeouts, recording 5 saves and posting a 0.90 ERA. For comparison,

Jordan Romano has pitched 7.2 innings. In those 7.2 innings he has a 15.26 ERA. Joe Ross and Jose Ruiz have a 7.45 and 6.75 ERA respectively. Bullpen help needs to come, and it needs to come fast.

Andrew Painter is set to make his MLB debut this season. The Phillies have to decide whether they want him to start or if they would like to add him to the bullpen. By adding Painter to the starting rotation, they could feasibly move either or both of Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suarez to the bullpen. Walker has improved, if only slightly, and could make sense as an inning eater. Painter would likely be on a pitch count, putting more strain on the bullpen to help in more innings overall, but Walker, though not a natural bullpen arm, could relieve a significant number of innings throughout the season.

Ranger Suarez makes more sense as a reliever, as he has played that role in the past. He does not have an arsenal that features significant velocity, but on some of the brightest stages, he has relieved well. Think back to the Phillies’ 2022 World Series run; it was Suarez that closed out the final game of the NLCS against the Padres.

Trade

Kyle Finnegan is a Washington National, so a trade within the division is less likely. But the Nationals, who were supposed to have an improved team this year, already sit below .500 with little chance they can make up ground on the wild card, even this early in the season. Despite his team’s struggles, Finnegan is a reliable closer. Jose Alvarado is likely a better option as a closer, but Finnegan would fill the role of high-leverage inning reliever, a role that Rob Thomson values highly. He is pitching an impressive 1.86 ERA.

Ryan Helsley is an even better reliever, though his ERA is higher than Finnegan’s right now. Over the last two seasons, Helsley has recorded lower ERAs and WHIPs than Finnegan. He is a premier closer, even leading all of Major League Baseball in saves last season with 49. He would not be a cheap addition, but he would immediately fill Jose Alvarado’s closing role, allowing Alvarado to plug in during important matchups, especially against lefties. He is the best bullpen option for the Phillies.

If the Phillies trade for Luis Robert Jr., they likely would not have enough ammunition to trade for Finnegan too, and certainly not for Helsley, at least not without including third base prospect Aidan Miller or pitching prospect Mick Abel. With Suarez getting healthy and Andrew Painter debuting, the Phillies may rely on their internal solutions unless they are willing to trade two or three of their four best prospects. But if the Phillies want to truly compete for a World Series, Dave Dombrowski will need to make a big splash before the trade deadline, and the reinforcements should come in the form of Luis Robert Jr. and Ryan Helsley.

The Phillies lost yet another game, this time 5-1 against the New York Mets.

Though the offense was disappointing, what is far more concerning is that Cristopher Sanchez left the game in the second inning due to arm soreness.

With Ranger Suarez not yet set to return to the rotation, Aaron Nola struggling in every start so far this year, and Andrew Painter not scheduled to debut until sometime July, the starting rotation is in a bind. Zack Wheeler got knocked around twice already this season. Taijuan Walker is, well, Taijuan Walker. The rotation was supposed to be built to handle untimely injuries. But cluster injuries and poor play makes this rotation weak.

The offense was anemic. The lone score came from a Johan Rojas RBI single. The team’s strongest batters are simply not playing up to expectations. With every facet of the game struggling, it’s not hard to imagine this team winning somewhere around 85 games and missing the playoffs. They will need to address areas of weakness quickly before the season spirals out of control. They are now 13-11, four games back from the Mets.

For what it’s worth, the Phillies have not had a day off in over three series and could benefit from some rest.

Perhaps the Phillies can stave off the feelings of gloom today when Zack Wheeler takes the mound against David Robertson.

If you had said that the Phillies would go 5-5 against three of the best teams in the National League in a two-week span, most Phillies fans would have been ecstatic. Though the Phillies lost a series and tied another, the Phillies went toe-to-toe with some of the league’s best, and came through at .500 (minus the series loss against the Cardinals in between).

But this two week stretch of Phillies games felt eerily similar to last season’s Phillies, at least post-All Star break. If you recall, the Phillies finished a disappointing 33-33 after the All Star break in 2024. Over the past two weeks, the Phillies may have finished .500, but the losses felt more damning than the wins felt vindicating.

The losses exposed some hard truths about this team, ones that we discuss ad nauseum. First, the outfield is a barren wasteland at the plate (outside of Nick Castellanos). Johan Rojas is not a major league hitter. With the amount of time the Phillies have spent giving him plate appearances, I’m not sure he ever will be. Brandon Marsh has been even worse. Second, the rotation is not as good as everyone thought, at least not until Ranger Suarez returns and Aaron Nola gets right.

This series should be a good chance for everyone to get right. The Marlins are currently 3rd in the NL East at 8-10, just 2.5 games back from the Phillies, though they’re likely not as good as their record indicates.

Their pitching is fine, headlined by a healthy Sandy Alcantara, who will face off against Zack Wheeler on Friday’s game. The second game will feature Cal Quantrill who will have the opportunity to face Taijuan Walker. Finally, Connor Gillispie will see Jesus Luzardo. The Marlines also have better bats than expected this season, led by First Baseman Matt Mervis, who already has 6 HRs this season.

They are the perfect get right team. The Phillies should be able to stifle bats that are hotter than they should be with two of their best pitchers set to see the Marlins. While the Marlins rotation is fine, the Phillies should be able to score runs.

Win games. Get right.

Aaron Nola has always been somewhat of an enigmatic pitcher. He is what we call an “ace.” Or at least, he is paid like it.

Nola just received a 7-year extension two offseasons ago. By annual average value (AAV), Nola ranks 15th among all pitchers, boasting an AAV of $24,571,429 per year. When considering total salary, Nola ranks 7th at $172,000,000.

In terms of monetary value, Nola is worth quite a bit. But when it comes to value on the field, it is difficult to justify such a high price tag.

Nola has never been a pitcher that wins with velocity. That is simply not his game. In 2024, his fastball, his best pitch by batting average, averaged 92.5 mph. In 2024, his best pitch by run value was his knuckle curve, which averaged 79.1 mph. When he’s on, he wins with precision and offspeed pitches outside the zone. When he’s off, he loses on the long ball.

In 2024, Nola tied for 5th in home runs allowed with 30. In 2023, he did not fair much better, allowing 32, which tied for 7th. This year, Nola has already given up four home runs, and he has only started four games.

Nola also tends to struggle the second time through a batting order. It’s become somewhat of a joke, as Phillies fans fear an Aaron Nola “Rav 4th Inning” (for the uninitiated, the Phillies’ 4th inning is sponsored by Toyota). But Nola does have an uncanny habit of spiraling at some point in the 4th or 5th inning of a game.

Still, despite his struggles with home runs, Nola typically grades out well and pitches nearly 200 innings, often playing deep into games, and giving the bullpen a much needed rest.

That has not been the case in 2025.

Nola may have only started four games, and he may have only pitched 20.1 innings, but the Phillies have an Aaron Nola problem. He is the 4th highest paid player on the team, but his performance has taken a drastic step backwards. His ERA sits at 6.65, well up from his 2024 number of 3.57. His WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) jumped up to 1.66 from just 1.20 last season. His velocity is down across all five of his pitches, and the differences are concerning.

So what is wrong with Aaron Nola? Well, the unfortunate reality is that Aaron Nola is losing velocity, and his arm simply cannot afford to lose any strength. For a pitcher with such low velocity, even a tick off the speed gun is untenable. Batters are able to anticipate and react to his pitches, even more than they already could. If you’re searching for evidence, look no further than Nola’s 2025 barrel % and barrel/PA. Nola’s young 2025 season already well surpasses every other season of his career at 12.5% and 8.3, respectively. He’s throwing more balls, locating pitches poorly when in the zone, and getting behind in counts. That is not a recipe for success.

Perhaps Nola’s poor start to the season is a function of small sample size. Maybe he is hurt. Regardless, the Phillies’ strength this season was supposed to lie in their starting rotation. With Ranger Suarez injured, Taijuan Walker in the rotation and Nola underperforming, the Phillies strengths have become a weakness, a weakness that could keep the Phillies out of the playoffs. It’s only April, but there is something wrong with Aaron Nola, and right now, it does not seem fixable.

(All pitching analytics found from baseballsavant.com)

(All contract information found on spotrac.com)

JT Realmuto and Bryce Harper led a strong team performance against the San Francisco Giants in a 6-4 win to even up the series 1-1.

Realmuto hit his first home run of the season a night after a horrendous called strike three  ended the Phillies’ hopes for a comeback win in Citizens Bank Park. Harper hit his third home run of the season, showcasing some of the power that had been raising questions throughout the fan base.

The Phillies have not been playing their best baseball of late. They lost back-to-back series against the Braves and Cardinals due to a severe lack of production from their 7-9 hitters and all around poor pitching.

Tonight’s game was a much needed bounce-back. Much maligned third baseman Alec Bohm hit a critical RBI single with two outs from the 8-hole. Max Kepler had two hits, one of them a double, from the 7-hole.

Of note, Manager Rob Thomson recently moved Bryson Stott to lead off, a move that has aged well. Stott had a triple today, and though he did not produce any RBIs, his place as lead off has given the top of the order traffic on the bases to work with.

Jesus Luzardo was not nearly as dominant as his first three starts, but still went 5.1 innings, albeit with only four strikeouts.

The Phillies’ bullpen also showed up to play, allowing only one earned run.

For all the positives, the Phillies continue to have a Brandon Marsh problem. Marsh is hitting .100. Centerfield remains a question mark. Between Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh, there are no legitimate threats at the plate. Centerfield will be a position of need as the Phillies get closer to the trade deadline.

The Phillies look to win the series tomorrow at 6:45 PM.

“I was a little over-served, but Jesus was electric.”

These may have been words from Saint Peter at the last supper, or maybe even a guest at the wedding in Cana when water turned to wine.

In reality, they are words from Phillies fan Mitchell Warner after attending Jesus Luzardo’s start against the Dodgers, and he speaks for everyone in the greater Philadelphia area.

Jesús Luzardo's 8th K. ✝️🦎

With just the crowd noise. pic.twitter.com/NqG4p8ARLq

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2025

He may have been over-served, but Mitchell’s eyes did not deceive him. Against the presumptive best team in baseball, Jesus Luzardo threw an absolute gem.

Jesús Luzardo held the undefeated Dodgers scoreless in seven innings pic.twitter.com/mvT8As9im0

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 5, 2025

Luzardo’s start against the Dodgers may have come in April, but the feeling throughout Citizens Bank Park had more of an October feel. Luzardo handled it like an ace.

Phillies fans are no strangers to Luzardo and his talent. Afterall, he has played for the division rival Miami Marlins since 2021.

Yet for all his talent—he was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball—he was seemingly lost in an offseason that most Phillies fans wanted to forget.

After losing to the Mets in the NLDS, most fans expected a bigger move. Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker were the two position players most pined for. At pitcher, the biggest prize was Garrett Crochet. All of those players ended up in either Boston or Chicago.

Instead, the Phillies’ biggest addition was Jesus Luzardo, and the acquisition did not generate much excitement. Now, in just three starts for Philadelphia, Luzardo is the talk of the town.

His three starts have come in big spots: the Nationals, Dodgers and Braves. In those starts, Luzardo earned two wins and 25 strikeouts across 18 innings of work. He has just a 1.50 ERA. His WHIP is even more impressive, boasting a 1.24. He has had good seasons before, but through three starts, Luzardo is having his best season yet.

The difference for Luzardo is his new pitch, the sweeper. This year, his sweeper has essentially replaced his slider. Last season Luzardo through the slider 29.3% of his pitches. This year he has thrown it only 12.5%, instead favoring the sweeper at 25.7%. At almost the exact same velocity, his sweeper has more horizontal break and induces a strike 66% of the time he throws it. That is elite stuff. With a strong pitch added to an already lethal arsenal that includes one of the best fastballs in baseball, the sky is the limit for a pitcher that was supposed to be the Phillies’ fifth option.

The MLB season is a long one, and certainly, Luzardo will have some down games. Even Zack Wheeler has an off day every now and then. But a healthy Luzardo pitching at this clip means that the Phillies have inarguably the best rotation in all of baseball.

To put it simply, they are electric.

I would say there hardly could have been a better start to the season than taking the first three series of the season, one against a division rival and one against one of the best built teams in recent memory.

It’s funny how quickly things can change.

Seemingly, the only two Phillies that decided to show against perhaps the team’s biggest rival that had one win in nine games, were Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber, who has been the hottest player in baseball since the young season began.

The batting was abysmal outside of the two Phillies mentioned above. Perhaps the most frustrating was Edmundo Sosa, who had been hitting—albeit an impossible to sustain—.600 batting average. Rob Thomson rewarded his recent hot-streak with a start in left field. He proceeded to go 0-3 with two strikeouts. His play in left field was similarly poor, as he made at least two bad throws from shallow left field.

Bryce Harper’s performances at the plate have been concerning. He started the season off with a bang by homering. But since, his contact has been sporadic and weak.

The 7 through 9 batters were horrendous. Even after substituting Brandon Marsh for Sosa and Max Kepler for Johan Rojas, the batting was terrible. Between the five batters to be featured 7 through 9 in the lineup today combined for 12 at bats, 0 hits, 0 walks and 6 Ks.

A World Series-contending team simply cannot have such poor production from a third of the lineup.

The pitching was also dreadful. Zack Wheeler, despite being the most consistent pitcher in the National League over the past three seasons, put up a stinker. He had an uncharacteristic five earned runs. Matt Strahm did what he could in relief with loaded bases, surrendering two runs (both of which counted towards Wheeler).

Orion Kerkering disappointed today. I was going to feature him this week based on my comments from my last post. He is, in my mind, a linchpin for this Phillies team. He simply has to be a high-leverage arm, considering the departures of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. He is known for inducing weak contact fly balls.. Today, the Braves were making more solid contact and he gave up an earned run.

On the bright side, the Phillies—or more accurately Castellanos and Schwarber—were able to beat up on a starter, displaying a buck against the Phillies’ trend of beating up on only relief pitchers. Hopefully the rest of the Phillies can learn a thing or two from them.

The Phillies look to even-up the series today at 1:15 PM.

It may be time to consider selling any assets you have in the stock market.

Economists around the country are predicting a “Black Monday”-level drop in the stock market next week, and like clockwork Nick Castellanos hit a home run to coincide with the impending tragedy, this time in the form of a grand slam.

The Phillies ultimately won the back-and-forth game 8-7, but it was a frustrating win.

The Phillies have struggled against starters this season, and through two innings, the game seemed to be following a similar script. Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow mowed down the Phillies’ lineup, allowing only one walk and one hit across the first six outs.

In the bottom of the third, the 2025 Phillies’ more conservative approach at the plate paid off, as Rafael Marchan, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner all walked to load the bases. A Bryce Harper single and a Glasnow wild pitch tied the game at 2. Max Kepler subsequently walked to load the bases again for Castellanos’ grand slam.

Despite the offensive explosion in the 3rd inning, the Dodgers were able to fight their way back into the game on the back of a scorching-hot Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez had two home runs and a double which kept the Dodgers within striking distance.

At the start of the 7th, Phillies Manager Rob Thomson had Jordan Romano relieve Jose Ruiz. The decision played out as expected. Romano allowed an Andy Pages single and a Shohei Ohtani walk. Mookie Betts followed up with a double before Orion Kerkering entered the game to try and save the day.

Kerkering tried his best to work with traffic on the bases, but utlimately allowed 3 runs to score, giving the Dodgers a 7-6 lead.

Fortunately, the Phillies offense responded with two runs of their own, coming from strong at bats from Bryson Stott and Edmundo Sosa, who started in favor of Alec Bohm.

Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado closed out the game for the Phillies efficiently, putting away all six batters they faced. Kerkering earned the win and Alvarado got the save.

With the win, the Phillies took the series 2-1 against the defending champions, which bodes well for their standing in the National League.

It was an entertaining game, but one that further exposed some issues the team needs to address. The Phillies cannot not trust Jordan Romano—the biggest offseason addition for the bullpen—in high-leverage situations and Alec Bohm’s benching during the NLDS was not a fluke.

Sosa remains a fine answer to Bohm’s struggles for now while he’s hot, but he is at his best as a utility player. The Phillies’ best answer for the bullpen at this point is an improving Orion Kerkering. Romano can eat innings in blowouts, but if Kerkering continues to improve, he will need to take the high-leverage situations Romano was meant to fill. Between Kerkering, Strahm and Alvarado, the Phillies have at least three excellent arms in the bullpen.

The Phillies now travel to Atlanta to face the floundering Braves. The Braves have lost all but one of their first nine games. No team in MLB history has made the postseason after such a bad start. The series will be a good opportunity to increase the gap in the NL East.