What the Eagles need to do to win their 8th NFC Championship Game since 2001.
As the old adage “it’s hard to beat a good team three times in one season.”
The Eagles have a date with the Washington Commanders for the third time this season. They won at Lincoln Financial Field but suffered a last second loss at FedEx Field after Eagles QB Jalen Hurts exited the game in the first quarter with a concussion. Since then, the Eagles have put away the Packers and the Rams in the wildcard and divisional rounds of the playoffs. In both games, the team has struggled.
Against the Rams, the Eagles almost gave the game away. After his fourth touchdown of 60+ yards this year against the Rams, Saquon Barkley had the Eagles on the verge of their eighth NFC Championship Game in 24 years. Yet, it came down to a Jalen Carter sack and another Jalen Carter pressure in the redzone in the final seconds of the game to close out the visiting Rams. If the Eagles want to make a trip to New Orleans, they will need to play much better situational football against the Commanders.
Prior to playing the Rams, the defense was not receiving as much scrutiny as they maybe deserved for their performance against the Packers. The Eagles defense benefitted from multiple turnovers to seal the victory against Green Bay. The numbers indicate that the defense played much worse than the final score shows. From weeks 1-18, the Packers had a 0.4% 3rd down conversion rate over expected, good for 18th in the league. Yet, when you include their wildcard performance against the Eagles, that number grows to 1.4%, a massive jump for the addition of just a single week. The defense played much better on third down against the Rams, which more consistent with their performance throughout the rest of the season, though the Eagles likely benefitted from the snowy weather affecting Matthew Stafford and the rest of the offense.
Third down will be much more important this week against the Commanders. And not just 3rd down, 4th down too. Sean McVay’s approach is much more conservative on 4th down than the Commanders will be.
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The Commanders have made a living on 4th down this season, far outpacing a league that continuously moves towards utilizing all four downs. They also succeed on 3rd down, posting a 45.6% 3rd down conversion rate, good for 3rd in the NFL. And this time, the Eagles will not be able to rely on the weather to help them.
The presumptive Offensive Rookie of the Year, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels, presents a unique challenge for the Eagles, one that they have faced multiple times this season. Per Sumer Sports, Daniels leads the league in scramble rate, scrambling on 12% of his drop backs and second in quarterback rushing yards, behind only Lamar Jackson. In the first game, the Eagles defense was able to successfully limit Daniels’ scrambling ability. In the second matchup, they were not quite so lucky.
It will be up to Vic Fangio to force 3rd and 4th downs and make sure Daniels remains in the pocket. Look for the Eagles to continue to play a high rate of zone coverage so that defenders can keep their eyes on the quarterback and for the defensive line to mush rush, maintain gap integrity and limit Daniels’ chances to escape the pocket. More than ever, it will be important for the Eagles to present interior pressure.
With the Commanders’ starting guard Sam Cosmi out for this game, the Commanders will likely double team Eagles standout DT Jalen Carter. Even with the extra attention, Carter can still be a force.
Even if the Commanders effectively limit Carter with double teams, the greater attention he will receive should present the other interior rushers with the opportunity to win their one-on-one matchups. Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo will need to step up.
The Commanders are the best offense this Eagles have faced this postseason. They are an efficient offense in both the run game and the passing game. They boast a .149 EPA/play, ranking 4th in the NFL. In fact, across EPA per rush, rushing success rate, EPA per drop back and drop back success rate, the lowest mark for the Commanders is drop back success rate, where they rank 6th in the NFL. This will not be an easy game for Vic Fangio’s defense.
Among the most pivotal matchups is how Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will exploit backup linebacker Oren Burks. Burks filled in admirably for the injured Nakobe Dean, but Sean McVay foolishly did not target that matchup frequently. It will be a familiar face that will prey on Burks’ coverage shortfalls this week. Zach Ertz has had a resurgent season in Washington. Among tight ends with at least 30 receptions, Ertz ranks ninth in total EPA and accounts for 18.1% of Commanders’ targets this season. Expect for Jayden Daniels to get him the ball early and often. Fortunately, Burks is at his best coming downhill and is aggressive when pursuing ball carriers. As all Eagles fans know, Ertz is not known for his creative ability in yards after catch situations.
The Commanders are among the league’s most creative teams when it comes to personnel groupings and formations, so expect Ertz to lineup in a multitude of places throughout the formation. When he splits out wide in 11 personnel, I would like to see Fangio to account for him by mixing in man coverage and walking CJ Gardner-Johnson down to the line of scrimmage.
Ultimately, I expect the Commanders to score often in this game. I have not even mentioned Terry McLaurin, who has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season, nor Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheus, who have both had good years in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. The efficiency of both their run and pass game proves they can take advantage of the Eagles defense in ways other teams cannot, with the quarterback run game stressing the defense on 3rd and 4th downs. Daniels may be a rookie, but as Vic Fangio said during his press conference availability this week, “[Daniels] is a young quarterback by birth certificate, not by the tape.”
On offense, the focus will be on how Jalen Hurts performs against what is statistically the worst defense still in the playoffs. As of the time of this writing, Commanders DT Daron Payne will be out for the game, a huge loss for a Commanders team that already gives up among the most yards before contact to opposing running backs.
Jalen was out early in the last game, suffering a concussion that kept him out multiple weeks. It was clear almost immediately that Jalen’s absence greatly affected how the Commanders played against the run. With Jalen not a threat to keep the ball on read options, the defense was able to key on Saquon, limiting his breakaway runs and efficiency.
The Commanders’ defensive coordinator has already made a point to try and intimidate the Eagles into limiting Jalen’s rushing attempt, stating that they were going to hit Jalen like a running back. A sound assessment to make, but likely a foolish one considering their own quarterback’s propensity to run.
Once again, I would expect this game to come down to the rushing game. The Eagles have identified their preferred method and path to victory, a dominant run game and stout defense. It may not be the most aesthetically pleasing way to win a game, but the Commanders struggle against the run game. If the Eagles can stay ahead of the sticks and keep Saquon on the field, they have as good a chance as any team.
Ultimately, I see the Eagles falling just short in this game. After seeing the way Daniels has been playing, especially against the Eagles in Week 16, I think that the Commanders can convert on either 3rd or 4th down almost every drive when needed. The Eagles’ defense has been great all season but has been more suspect recently. That, coupled with an injury to Cam Jurgens, which will likely inhibit the run game, might mean the difference for the Eagles. Final score Commanders 30, Eagles 27.
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