An unfortunate reality that the Phillies had to face this morning may be the new norm for professional baseball: teams cannot compete with the likes of the Dodgers and Mets, at least financially.
The Phillies have wooed their big time free agents with long-term deals with high total value, suppressing average annual value to a manageable level. It is a formula that has worked. It landed them Bryce Harper and Trea Turner.
Yet, the formula changed over the last 24 hours.
Just last night Kyle Tucker signed a 4-year, $240 million contract with the Dodgers despite having more guaranteed money and years elsewhere. This morning, much to the dismay of Phillies fans, Bo Bichette chose a 3-year, $126 million contract with the Mets over the longer—and larger—deal with the Phillies.
The two instances could be an aberration, or they could very well be a sign of a shifting culture in baseball, one in which only a few teams can play.
The Phillies fancy themselves a big market team. Their projected 2026 tax payroll (including luxury tax) ranks third in baseball at $362 million, according to Spotrac. The Dodgers are first at $576 million, a difference of an astounding $214 million. The Phillies are closer to the twentieth-place Cincinnati Reds at $150 million than they are to the Dodgers.
According to reports, the Phillies met Bo Bichette’s 7-year, $200 million demand last night, only to wake up and see the news that Bichette was headed to Queens. Suddenly, the Phillies’ trump card in free agent negotiations does not align with player priorities. Suddenly, the organization seems antiquated. Suddenly, the big market team shrinks against the mega market sport. Shorter deals, higher AAV, and the Phillies either cannot or will not adjust.
It would be difficult to ignore the proliferation of opt-outs in contracts as a prequel to players prioritizing short term deals that expose them to market inflation, giving them the additional opportunities to cash in as payrolls continue to increase.
The Phillies do not grant opt-outs in their free agent contracts. General Manger Preston Mattingly said as much in an interview with the Baseball is Dead Podcast. Whether it is a hedge against their weak farm system to extract value by owning contracts that age into below-market value (see Bryce Harper) due to player overproduction or it is a cultural philosophy in team building, the Phillies’ hard stance against opt-outs indicate either a reluctance or inability to adapt to the contract climate. Likely, it is an inability to do so. The kind of financial investment continued market exposure and short terms contracts and opt-outs promoted is unsustainable for even the Phillies’ ownership group.
The Phillies face a crossroads. Do they find a way to gain access to more funds, perhaps by adding additional owners? They’ve done it recently. Or do they admit they are a big market team in a mega market world and focus of revamping their farm system and operating like the Brewers, Rays, etc.?
The path forward may already be chosen for them.
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