Tomorrow the Eagles try and flip the script on a team that has had their number since the beginning of the Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts era, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since the Eagles’ head coach and quarterback took the reins of the franchise, they are 1-4 against the Buccaneers.
For whatever reason, the Eagles defense has struggled to contain the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin while the Eagles offense has not had an answer for Todd Bowles’ pressure packages. Jalen Hurts has struggled mightily against Bowles’ designed delayed blitzes that get him running to his left. When Hurts plays the Buccaneers, his numbers look like the worst quarterback in the league.
Of note, in their 1-4 stretch against the Buccaneers, AJ Brown has only played in one game. The Eagles are 1-0 when AJ Brown plays. During last years’ drubbing, the Eagles played without AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson. That is not a recipe for success.
It’s a new season and this Eagles team is more than capable of beating the Buccaneers. Let’s take a look at how the Eagles match up.
Eagles Defense Vs. Buccaneers Offense
The more I look at the numbers, this is a matchup that the Eagles should win handily, at least on paper. What sticks out most to me is the predictability of the Buccaneers’ offense.
In Philadelphia, we’ve heard the complaints about Kevin Patullo and how predictable his offense is when looking at formations and personnel groupings. The Buccaneers are not quite as bad, but their personnel sets still tell a rather descriptive story.
The Bucs are in 11 personnel 11 percent more often than league average, and when they are in 11 personnel, they pass 72 percent of the time. They don’t often play in 12 personnel, but when they do, they run 67 percent of the time.
They consistently throw to the same people and areas of the field as well. Baker Mayfield throws to receivers on 72 percent of targets, pushes the ball downfield (ADOT is 9.23 yards and he ranks 7th in intended air yards), and he only throws to the middle of the field 18 percent of the time. For context, Jalen Hurts, who often receives criticism for not accessing that area of the field, throws to the middle of the field on 13 percent of his attempts.
The Bucs also like to isolate their receivers. They run 1×3 sets the most of any team in the NFL. The Buccaneers like to hunt matchups through this isolation. With Vic Fangio asking Quinyon Mitchell to shadow receivers often this season and Mike Evans not playing on Sunday, it will be difficult for the Buccaneers to find the matchups they want. Mayfield’s time to throw is 2.6 seconds, the second fastest in the NFL. He is at his best when he is in rhythm and getting the ball out quickly to his receivers downfield. If the Eagles can restrict their ability to get their desired matchups, they can either force Mayfield to hold on to the ball longer for the Eagles to take advantage of their makeshift offensive line (Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch are out), or they can capitalize on ill-advised quick throws into tight coverage. Mayfield has not been particularly accurate this season, ranking 23rd, 22nd and 21st in completion percentage, expected completion percentage and completion percentage over expected, respectively. Mayfield attempts difficult throws with below average accuracy.
On the ground, the Buccaneers are mediocre. Next Gen Stats’ information on Bucky Irving indicates he is one of the least efficient runners in the league. He does not get north-south quickly despite seeing 8+ men in the box only 19.64 percent of the time. Saquon Barkley gets that attention almost 10 percent more often. With less defenders in the box, Irving should be feasting on spread out defensive formations, yet he has -36 rushing yards over expected. That will not improve in a game he will play without Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch against Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter and Zack Baun.
While the Buccaneers are top-10 in EPA and EPA/play, they are 21st in success rate, indicating that they are much more explosive than they are consistent. On Sunday, the Eagles should be able to take advantage of their variance.
Typically, when Baker Mayfield isn’t getting the looks that he wants, he will panic and scramble. When he’s pressed, he is prone to bad decisions and turnovers. That is where the Eagles’ defense will need to feast. Because of the Buccaneers’ predictability, inefficient run game, and backups along their offensive line, the Eagles need to create quick pressure and force Mayfield into bad decisions. I have full faith in Vic Fangio taking advantage of the Buccaneers’ offensive tendencies with their incredible personnel.
Eagles Offense Vs. Buccaneers Defense
For as confident as I am about the Eagles’ defense, I am concerned about the offense’s ability to put together long, consistent drives.
Across the board, the Buccaneers defense has been average to great in pass defense and run defense metrics. Over the first three weeks of the season, offenses have been unwilling to push the ball down the field. Average depth of target against this defense is 6.3 yards which is the 4th lowest in the NFL. That does not bode well for an offense that has been unwilling to push the ball downfield against defenses that generally have not been good.
In the past, the Buccaneers defense has limited Jalen Hurts by sending blitzes that force him to move to his left. Typically Hurts will not throw on the run running to his left and will instead try to run. The Buccaneers send a late defender to sit in front of Hurts as he moves to his left to ensure he does not pick up any additional yardage.
Expect that to continue. The Buccaneers have been blitz heavy this season, sending the second most total blitzes through three weeks. The Buccaneers’ edge rushers have been average in all pass rush metrics so far this season which may be why the Bucs have been so reliant on blitzes.
What the Buccaneers have succeeded in doing this season should be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ offensive design. It’s no secret that the Eagles do not have built in answers for pressure. They believe in Hurts’ ability to either run for the first down or push the ball downfield on pressure looks. Again, Patullo does not have easy, built-in hot reads for Hurts.
This Bucs defense is designed to anticipate and stop Hurts scrambles, essentially limiting him to one formula to win against the blitz: bombs. Patullo’s route distributions are not inspiring (think of the rep last week when Jahan Dotson and DeVonta Smith were in the same area), and the offense has not been able to manufacture easy separation.
If this offense is going to win, it is going to win because of AJ Brown and Saquon Barkley’s ability to create after the catch. The Buccaneers have allowed the 4th most yards after the catch this season. The Eagles have the personnel to take advantage of that weakness, but the question remains: can Patullo create ways to get his playmakers the ball in space? I don’t have any trust he’s found the secret sauce in just one week. Maybe I’m wrong.
Predicition
Las Vegas has the Buccaneers as +3.5 point home underdogs, which really means that Vegas sees the Eagles as a 6.5 point favorites at a neutral site. The game total sits at 43.5, meaning that Vegas sees the Eagles winning this game around 24-20. I think that is a generous point total for a game I see as a defensive masterclass from both teams. The Eagles and the Buccaneers both seemingly pull rabbits out of the hat each week, which will make a close game between these two NFC heavyweights so interesting. I think that the Eagles win 17-14. This game, to me, is decided by turnovers. I think the critical injuries the Buccaneers have on offense make Mayfield’s weaknesses so much more important than they typically are, and he throws too many passes inaccurately into tight windows. Reed Blankenship gets his first interception of the season on a pass tipped by Quinyon Mitchell, who I think spends most of his time shadowing Emeka Egbuka.
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