On Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles will begin the defense of their title in Lincoln Financial Field against the Dallas Cowboys.
It’s one of the great football rivalries in the NFL, and the Eagles unveiling their new Super Bowl banner will likely add some fuel to the fire on the field. However, this game will have a much different feel than in recent years.
The two teams are in very different situations. The Eagles are champions and boast perhaps the best roster in the NFL. The Cowboys feature and a brand-new coaching staff and just traded their best player, Micah Parsons, to the Green Bay Packers.
The Eagles should win this game. They have the better offense; they have the better defense; they have the better coaching. But as the old adage goes, any given Sunday. Here is how the game will look on both sides of the ball.
Eagles Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The biggest advantage the Eagles have remains their rushing offense. Jalen Hurts’ decisiveness and power carrying the football will always create opportunities for the running backs by forcing linebackers to respect his rushing ability.
The Eagles’ rushing offense was phenomenal in 2024. They ranked first in the NFL in rushing EPA with .056. As good as the Eagles’ rushing offense was, the Cowboys’ run defense surpassed it in rushing EPA allowed with .084. Simply put, opponents collectively ran better against the Cowboys than the Eagles did all season in terms of season totals.
During the 2024-2025 season, the Cowboys blitzed at the sixth highest rate in all of football. Their aggression on defense was partially why they were so ineffective against the run. Afterall, when you blitz, you risk blitzing the wrong gap. New Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus does not typically blitz as much, which may help stabilize their rush defense.
Now, the Micah Parsons trade is one-sided. There is no doubt about that. The Cowboys received only two first round picks and Kenny Clark in return. The Cowboys lost one of the three best pass rushers in the NFL and received little as compensation, but outside of contract structure and negotiation missteps, the trade makes sense structurally for the Cowboys’ defense. Clark may be coming off the worst season of his career, but he has historically been stout against the run in addition to his pass rushing ability. If he can return to his typical form, the Cowboys’ defense should improve against the run (it really can’t get worse, can it). If nothing else, the trade at least demonstrates a commitment to defending the run. Additionally, the Cowboys will play much of the season without linebacker Demarvion Overshown, who played well against the Eagles last season. To help linebackers Jack Sanborn and Kenneth Murray Jr., Eberflus will want to devote more resources to stop the run by loading the box and forcing Hurts to throw.
During the 2024-2025 season, the Cowboys’ defense was strong against the pass, primarily because of its pass rush. According to Pro Football Reference, they ranked third in sacks (52), boasting a 9.2% sack percentage, second in total pressures, and ninth in quarterback hits (105). Now, without Parsons to help disrupt the quarterback the Cowboys will need to their defensive backs to create opportunities for coverage sacks. Critically, the Cowboys return both DaRon Bland and Trevon Diggs, which should keep the Cowboys’ pass defense afloat.
The combination of a better coverage unit, the subsequent availability of resources to devote against the run, the lack of Micah Parsons, and the addition of Kenny Clark, you can expect the Cowboys to commit to stopping the Eagles on the ground.
As we’ve seen on the biggest stages, Hurts relishes the challenge to throw when defenses key on the run, and I think he continues to take advantage.
Eagles Defense vs Cowboys Offense
The Cowboys may be a far weaker team than we have grown to expect recently, but the decrease in talent is defensively. Their offense still features a passing game that will exploit tight windows and mismatches frequently. The Cowboys’ best chance at staying in this game is by leveraging new addition George Pickens. Pickens is perhaps the best second receiver the Cowboys have had in a long time.
As of right now, the Eagles plan to play Adoree Jackson at the second outside corner spot in order to keep Cooper DeJean in the slot.
Cowboys’ star receiver CeeDee Lamb also plays primarily from the slot, but since the Eagles rarely have their corners travel across the defensive formation and Cooper DeJean has played so well, the Cowboys could look to move their receivers around and exploit matchups. The addition of Pickens means that the Eagles will not be able to provide as much safety help over Lamb. If they do, they will have to hope their front seven can handle a decent run-blocking Cowboys’ offensive line.
Fortunately, the Cowboys’ backfield features Javonte Williams as the starter. The Eagles should be able to drop their linebackers often to help in coverage and play more two-high shells against the Cowboys to keep everything in front of them.
The Cowboys have done a good job at replenishing talent along their offensive line and without any star defensive linemen outside of Jalen Carter, expect the Eagles to struggle to pressure Dak Prescott. Until the postseason, the Eagles 2024 defensive line was among the worst in pass rushing statistics across the board. Most of their success was a result of incredible coverage from the defensive backs position group. Once again, the Eagles defensive backs will need to force coverage sacks.
Prediction
27-14 Eagles. The Eagles rarely play starters in the preseason, so the first few games often serve as a warm-up of sorts. They don’t typically come out firing on all cylinders.
I think that the Eagles’ roster construction is better, their coaches are more experienced, and they have the best home field advantage in the NFL. The Linc will be rocking on banner night, and I expect the Eagles will feed off of the energy. Hurts will leverage the open space in the secondary as the Cowboys commit to trying to stop Saquon Barkley.
I think this is a big Jordan Davis game. While he’s never been the difference making DT the Eagles dreamed he would be, he has been impactful against the run. As the Eagles devote more assets to stopping the Cowboys’ always-dangerous aerial offense, he will hopefully be the linchpin in stopping the run. I think he ends up with 2+ TFLs.
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